During a briefing on June 18, Lyashko demonstrated the model of the Kiev School of Economics (KSE), according to which, under the “black scenario”, by the end of the year in Ukraine there would have been 145 thousand deaths due to COVID-19.
To the topic How many people died from COVID-19 in Ukraine: statistics by region
He noted that this scenario excludes any intervention factors that could affect the COVID-19 pandemic. That is, such a high mortality rate would be if no restrictions and preventive measures were introduced.
However, Lyashko added that this mortality is associated not only with cases of coronavirus infection. Indeed, in this period, the collapse of the health system occurs. For example, an ambulance would not come for strokes and heart attacks, that is, mortality from those diseases that are usually saved from would increase by tens of times.
According to the same model, if in March, in isolated cases, Ukraine did not have quarantine, then from April 25 there would not be enough beds in intensive care units in the country, doctors would not be able to cope with the flow of patients, and as a result, mortality would increase significantly.
The introduction of quarantine with us was a justified right decision, in particular it was right until the outbreaks and a significant increase in coronavirus disease started,
– said Lyashko.
Mortality due to COVID-19 before the end of the year in black, yellow and green scenarios / KSE